The Good, The Bad & The Ugly - Crunching Numbers Through 20

I'm a numbers person by trade. One of the first things I like to do if I'm analyzing a game is take a look at the box score and/or event summary. Sure, the numbers won't tell you everything, but more often than not they'll give you an indication of which way the wind blew. I am however, not a stat geek to the point where I pour over every minute detail and can make pretty graphs detailing such things as how a certain player fares when they shoot glove vs. stick side against a particular goalie. I'll be honest - I stare at databases and spreadsheets for 8-10 hours a day at my job, so my attention span with numbers at home is a half hour, tops. 

With a short break before the dreaded annual circus trip, I thought this may be a good time to digest some stats through 20 games. They give a good summary of what's worked (not too much) and what's not (too much for comfort) thus far in the Blackhawks' season. I've picked out some interesting numbers via NHL.com - enjoy. Try not to cry too much...

The Good

1) THE POWER PLAY: Currently our power play stands at 25.8% (17 for 66), good enough for 3rd in the league behind Minnesota (huh?) and Vancouver. Surprisingly we are about dead even with effectiveness at home (25.6%) and on the road (25.9%). Both Patricks, Sharp & Kane lead the team with four goals with the man advantage, with Jonathan Toews right behind them with three. Our power play was an achilles heel last year, so it's nice to see the improvement thus far. It does seem like though it's been feast or famine. The Hawks have had several games where we've scored at least two PP goals, while other games it looks as if we can't be bothered to try with a man up.
2) STAYING OUT OF THE BOX: The Blackhawks have the 5th least number of penalty minutes in the league with 194. Breaking that down further, 10 of those penalties have been majors and remember, we have currently played the most games in the league. What is more telling to me is that we're second in terms of least average penalty minutes per game with 9.7. This is key to our future success, especially considering the minutes our top D-men are averaging thus far. My only negative commenst in regards to penalties is the timing (stop taking them at the end of tied games, dammit) and the fact we've taken three bench minors - the Islanders lead the league with five. 
3) PHYSICALITY: The Hawks are third in the NHL with blocked shots (292) and fourth in hits (437). For a team that many believe to be one of the weaker in the league, it's obvious the guys are not afraid to put their body on the line when it matters most. We are also first in takeaways with 235. That's excellent until you consider the Blackhawks are also ninth in giveaways with 154. That's a perfect segue to...

The Bad

1) THE PENALTY KILL: For as well as the power play is clicking, the Blackhawks' penalty kill is mediocre at best. Currently the team is at a 80.6% (12 GA in 62PK) which is only good for 22nd in the league. Considering some of the teams we've played, this is unacceptable. This stat really tells how sub-par our defense has been thus far - with the limited number of penalties we've taken, this really needs to be tightened up. Perhaps even more disappointing is that we've only scored one shorthanded goal thus far, by one Mr. Sharp. Last year this was a particular strength for us, having scored 13, the only team in the league with double digits.
2) GOAL DIFFERENTIAL: Our average goals scored per game is only good for 18th in league at 2.75. That's depressing enough, but consider our average goals against: 2.90 - 17th in the league. The Hawks are too good a team to be middling with both of these stats. Last year our goals for was 3.20 while our goals against was 2.48. What's alarming to me is not only has our defense gone south, our offensive output also leaves much to be desired.
3) DIVISIONAL GAMES: The Hawks' record within the division currently stands at a pathetic 2-4-1, with the only two wins coming against Columbus and St. Louis. We still have 17 games left against the rivals, many of which come after the All-Star Game. That's a lot of games to make a marked improvement, but I hate that we've already dug a hole within the Central. These games will really matter if tiebreakers are going to be needed come playoff seeding time, so the Hawks need to put the petal to the metal when our "favorite" teams are on the schedule.

The Ugly

1) NO FINISH: All it would take is watching most of the Blackhawks' games in the last couple of weeks to realize that they have been putrid in closing out games. Looking at the stats makes it even more apparent. The Hawks are 29th in the league, winning only 60% of the games where they're leading heading into the third period. While they're first in the league having scored 22 goals in the first period, the production drops off significantly: 17 goals in the 2nd (12th) and only 14 tallies in the 3rd (20th). Meanwhile, our friends in Vancouver, having played three less games, lead the league with 25 goals scored in the final frame. On the flipside, the Hawks have allowed the third most goals in the 3rd period with 22 - that's a 8 goal differential for those of you without calculators. Are the Hawks' playing not to lose as the game closes? I think the team needs to block out the scoreboard, and play balls out for sixty, no matter what the score.
2) HOME ICE DISADVANTAGE: The Hawks lost a total of 8 games in regulation last year at the UC. Through 12 games in this young season? 5-7-0. Eww. Sure, the first six weeks have been front loaded with games, but the Hawks have supposedly had an advantage with 12 of the first 20 at home, many of those games, on paper, against much lesser opponents. This could really be a stat that bites the team right in the ass come April. While the Hawks have scored 29 goals on home ice, they've allowed the most in the NHL - 34. Our +/- for the year, which is an unaspiring -8 (24th in the league), is even worse considering we're a not too shabby +2 on the road. That's a -10 on home ice folks. That is really, really, bad. Let's just hope this bodes well for the circus trip.
3) TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT: Remember those games last season where'd we put the opponent over our knee and spank the shit out of them? When you could spend the third period relaxing instead of looking for the Rolaids and/or a bottle of whiskey? The closest we've had to a game like that was all the way back in game five with a 5-2 win over the woeful Blue Jackets. The Hawks have played 12 1-goal games and we only have a 6-6-2 record to show for it. 2-goal games? 2-2-0. Thus 16 of the 20 games played this far have been decided by 2 goals or less. I guess you could look at the glass half full and say the Blackhawks have been close in most of the games they've played. I'm going half empty here - too many games have been too close. I want to see some barnburners dammit - and I'm not talking about getting our asses kicked by fucking Edmonton.

I hope this post is interesting and not too depressing for Blackhawks fans. It definitely shows where the team needs improvement. The Hawks have 62 games left in the tank. Do I expect the team to be ready for the post-season come April? Hell yes. Does the team need to do a lot of work in the meantime? Well, I think the numbers can give you the answer to that question.